A Bayesian model of plan recognition

摘要

We argue that the problem of plan recognition, inferring an agent's plan from observations, is largely a problem of inference under conditions of uncertainty. We present an approach to the plan recognition problem that is based on Bayesian probability theory. In attempting to solve a plan recognition problem we first retrieve candidate explanations. These explanations (sometimes only the most promising ones) are assembled into a plan recognition Bayesian network, which is a representation of a probability distribution over the set of possible explanations. We perform Bayesian updating to choose the most likely interpretation for the set of observed actions. This approach has been implemented in the Wimp3 system for natural language story understanding.