Human-level artificial general intelligence and the possibility of a technological singularity: A reaction to Ray Kurzweil's The Singularity Is Near, and McDermott's critique of Kurzweil

摘要

An analysis of Ray Kurzweil's recent book The Singularity Is Near is given, along with Drew McDermott's recent critique. The conclusion is that Kurzweil does an excellent job of fleshing out one particular plausible scenario regarding the future of AI, in which human-level AI first arrives via human-brain emulation. McDermott's arguments against the notion of Singularity via iteratively self-improving AI, as described by Kurzweil, are considered and found wanting. However, it is pointed out that the scenario focused on by Kurzweil is not the only plausible one; and an alternative is discussed, in which human-level AI arrives first via non-human-like AI's operating virtual worlds.