Simulation model of rubella––the effects of vaccination strategies

摘要

The paper presents the construction of a deterministic multistage simulation model with age and sex structure. The model is based on the natural history of rubella. The dynamics of rubella is described by a system of non-linear differential equations. The model was validated by simulating the course of rubella in Trešnjevka, Zagreb, from 1961 to 1991. For the purposes of simulations, the epidemiological parameters commonly accepted to apply to the rubella were used; epidemiological classes, coefficients of transfer among the classes, and durations of stay in the classes; only the force of infection was estimated by iterative simulation until the average observed incidence in non-epidemic and epidemic years was reproduced within computational error. The force of infection was age and sex dependent. The effects of three different vaccination strategies were simulated.