Using extended Monte Carlo simulation method for the improvement of risk management: Consideration of relationships between uncertainties

摘要

This paper considers the relationship of the major uncertainties of a project by using proposed approach. This approach by using rotary algorithm intellectualized the classic Monte Carlo simulation. This will help utility function to come closer to reality so that decision making and risk analysis would be done based on the real and possible modes, providing better conditions for decision making. Analyzing and investigating uncertainties are done in the risk management frame work. Because opportunities and threats are not separated, Monte Carlo simulation analysis is implemented as an integrated tool to reach the project goals, analyzing and investigating a variety of uncertainty permutations simultaneously. This method is a powerful tool for investigating the effects of all uncertainties’ occurrence, so it has noticeable benefits such as simultaneous consideration of uncertainties and the capability of representing several dimensions of utility function. In spite of these benefits, not considering the type and level of relationships, some permutations of uncertainties will occur that are not possible in real world. This would divert the utility function from reality. A simple example is used to illustrate the application of the model in practice.