Hybrid evolutionary algorithms in a SVR traffic flow forecasting model

摘要

Accurate urban traffic flow forecasting is critical to intelligent transportation system developments and implementations, thus, it has been one of the most important issues in the research on road traffic congestion. Due to complex nonlinear data pattern of the urban traffic flow, there are many kinds of traffic flow forecasting techniques in literature, thus, it is difficult to make a general conclusion which forecasting technique is superior to others. Recently, the support vector regression model (SVR) has been widely used to solve nonlinear regression and time series problems. This investigation presents a SVR traffic flow forecasting model which employs the hybrid genetic algorithm-simulated annealing algorithm (GA-SA) to determine its suitable parameter combination. Additionally, a numerical example of traffic flow data from northern Taiwan is used to elucidate the forecasting performance of the proposed SVRGA-SA model. The forecasting results indicate that the proposed model yields more accurate forecasting results than the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), back-propagation neural network (BPNN), Holt–Winters (HW) and seasonal Holt–Winters (SHW) models. Therefore, the SVRGA-SA model is a promising alternative for forecasting traffic flow.