Selection of parameter values in environmental models using sparse data: A case study

摘要

Models of environmental processes must often be constructed without the use of extensive data sets. This can occur because the exercise is preliminary (aimed at guiding future data collection) or because requisite data are extremely difficult, expensive, or even impossible to obtain. In such cases traditional, statistically based methods for estimating parameters in the model cannot be applied; in fact, parameter estimation cannot be accomplished in a rigorous way at all. We examine the use of a regionalized sensitivity analysis procedure to select appropriate values for parameters in cases where only sparse, imprecise data are available. The utility of the method is examined in the context of equilibrium and dynamic models for describing water quality and hydrological data in a small catchment in Shehandoah National Park, Virginia. Results demonstrate that (1) models can be “tentatively calibrated” using this procedure; (2) the data most likely to provide a stringent test of the model can be identified; and (3) potential problems with model identifiability can be exposed in a preliminary analysis.