Relationship between industrial firms, high-carbon and low-carbon energy: An agent-based simulation approach

摘要

The aim of the present research is to describe an agent-based computational model that simulates the relationship between industrial firms and high-carbon and low-carbon energy. A set of behavioral rules for each agent involved was formalized in the model and implemented on a NetLogo platform. The simulation results indicated that with the exhaustion of high-carbon nonrenewable energy and stagnant/slow development of low-carbon renewable energy, the number of industrial firm is lowest and that this energy structure cannot sustain the security of their energy supply. Meanwhile, with the development of both high-carbon and low-carbon energy, the number of industrial firms increases sharply compared with the abovementioned condition, but challenges sustainable development. In contrast, the simulation results also indicated that the development of renewable low-carbon energy ensures the energy supply security of industrial firms, and furthermore, that the best way to sustained a greater number of industrial firms is to decrease the energy consumption of the industrial firms themselves. This means that low-carbon awareness and the behavior of firms play a significant role in developing low-carbon energy. Consequently, based on the simulation results, China’s energy policy should be to develop low-carbon energy and utilize fossil fuel cleanly and efficiently, while improving firms’ behavior and their capacity to absorb new low-carbon energy technologies.