On approximating the expected behavior of stochastic epidemiological models applicable to small populations

摘要

Many biological systems can be characterized by stochastic multivariate birth-death processes. Such models are often non-linear making the estimation of their mean behavior difficult. Several techniques for approximating the moments of such stochastic systems are proposed. Their use is illustrated by a study of the mean behavior of an epidemiological model applicable to small populations. Computer calculations using the theoretical methods are also given.