A hierarchical network model for epidemic spreading. Analysis of A/H1N1 virus spreading in Romania

摘要

The research in this paper presents a new approach for the modeling of epidemic spread by using a set of connected social networks. The purpose of this work is to simulate the spreading of the well know A/H1N1 pandemic virus. The case study analyzed in this paper refers to the spreading of A/H1N1 in Romania. The epidemic is followed from its beginning throughout its evolution in Romania, i.e. between May 2009 and February 2010. The evolution is performed in a hierarchical way, taking into account the state divisions, the influences among them, national level as well as influences from abroad (from other infected countries). Numerical experiments performed analyze the monthly evolution of the infection in each county and at the country level and compare the results with the real ones (collected during and at the end of the epidemic spread). The simulations results are closer to the reality than the ones provided by the Health Ministry in Romania.