A cumulative autoregressive model for choice behavior

摘要

The group choice behavior of human subjects is assumed to be, in part, oscillatory in nature. A true a priori predictive model based on the integrated autoregressive moving-average process proposed by G.E.P. Box is presented and compared with human subject data from a two-choice predictive situation with π = 0.60. The oscillatory patterns and predictions of the model are shown to be quite similar to those found in the subject data.