Mathematical modelling of non-local spore dispersion of wind-borne pathogens causing fungal diseases

摘要

Theoretical description of epidemics of plant diseases is an invaluable resource for their efficient management. Here we propose a mathematical model for describing the dispersal by wind of fungal pathogens in plant populations. The dispersal of pathogen spores was modelled using a non-local diffusion equation which took into account variations in wind velocity components and contained a threshold in the convolution kernel defining the non-local diffusion term. The model was analyzed and the epidemic levels and patterns of the plant disease were derived, based upon defined assumptions of the time and space variables (i.e., represented by continuous parameters), and the host population (i.e., fixed population size). Numerical applications were then performed using reported characteristic values for wheat leaf rust, stripe rust and stem rust.