A multi-agent system to predict the outcome of a two-round election

作者：

Highlights：

• An agent-based model is proposed to forecast the outcome of a two-round election.

• The perceived performance of the current government influences the vote.

• Simulations show how the political orientation of the society affects the winner.

• The model is used to simulate presidential elections held in Brazil and in Uruguay.

摘要

•An agent-based model is proposed to forecast the outcome of a two-round election.•The perceived performance of the current government influences the vote.•Simulations show how the political orientation of the society affects the winner.•The model is used to simulate presidential elections held in Brazil and in Uruguay.

论文关键词：Multi-agent system,Opinion dynamics,Social network,Voting behavior

论文评审过程：Received 2 February 2020, Revised 18 April 2020, Accepted 16 June 2020, Available online 7 July 2020, Version of Record 7 July 2020.

论文官网地址：https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amc.2020.125481