Short-term predictions and prevention strategies for COVID-19: A model-based study

作者：

Highlights：

• Forecasting COVID-19 and assessing control strategies are some real challenges.

• A novel mathematical model is proposed and analyzed.

• The UK time series data were utilized for analysis.

• Short-term forecasts indicate a decreasing trend in near future.

• Investing on the quarantined than isolated people will be more fruitful in terms of reduction of cases.

摘要

•Forecasting COVID-19 and assessing control strategies are some real challenges.•A novel mathematical model is proposed and analyzed.•The UK time series data were utilized for analysis.•Short-term forecasts indicate a decreasing trend in near future.•Investing on the quarantined than isolated people will be more fruitful in terms of reduction of cases.

论文关键词：Coronavirus disease,Mathematical model,Basic reproduction number,Model calibration and prediction,Control strategies,United Kingdom

论文评审过程：Received 23 July 2020, Revised 18 March 2021, Accepted 28 March 2021, Available online 1 April 2021, Version of Record 6 April 2021.

论文官网地址：https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amc.2021.126251