Expert systems and behavioral decision research

摘要

This paper reviews a part of the literature on behavioral decision research (policy capturing, psychophysics of numerical judgments and cognitive illusions) and examines implication for knowledge elicitation in expert systems. The literature on policy capturing demonstrates that simple and compact numerical models of expert knowledge can be built, but that experts are poor in verbalizing the knowledge expressed in them. The psychophysical literature indicates that numerical encoding of expert knowledge may be difficult and biased, but that it has definitive advantages over qualitative elicitation schemes: Numerical encoding forces hard throught, encourages precision, and allows to access a substantial computational apparatus. The literature on cognitive illusions suggests that the expert knowledge one elicits may be an illusion. The review concludes by recommending to use numerical judgments and explicit models by experts where possible, and to decompose the elicitation task in order to avoid cognitive illusions.