Decision support for risk analysis on dynamic alliance

摘要

Dynamic alliance has been considered a temporary organization of member enterprises formed to pool their core competencies and exploit fast changing market opportunities. Although many problems on dynamic alliance such as partner selection, operation management, information exchanges and their standards, etc., have been investigated, the risk management of dynamic alliance has not received deserved attention until now. For risk evaluation is the most important phase of risk management, so this paper is mainly concerned with the risk evaluation problem. Various kinds of risk factors that affect the operation of alliance are identified, and their levels are measured by three parameters such as risk occurrence likelihood, consequence severity and risk control degree. These parameters are expressed by trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. Furthermore, risk evaluation is regarded as a multiattribute decision-making (MADM) problem with uncertainty. A new evaluation approach based on the framework of the evidential reasoning (ER) is proposed. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the application of this approach in the process of risk evaluation.