Sequential weighted combination for unreliable evidence based on evidence variance

摘要

Dempster–Shafer evidence theory is a powerful tool in uncertainty reasoning and decision-making. However counter-intuitive results can be encountered when unreliable bodies of evidence are combined by using Dempster's rule of combination in some cases. In this paper, a novel sequential evidence combination approach is proposed based on the weighted modification of bodies of evidence according to our proposed variances of evidence sequences. Experimental results show that the proposed approach is rational and effective.