A decision support system for determining the optimal size of a new expressway service area: Focused on the profitability

摘要

Since the early 1990s, South Korea has been expanding its expressways. As of July 2013, a total of 173 expressway service areas (ESAs) have been established. Among these, 31 ESAs were closed due to financial deficits. To address this challenge, this study aimed to develop a decision support system for determining the optimal size of a new ESA, focusing on the profitability of the ESA. This study adopted a case-based reasoning approach as the main research method because it is necessary to provide the historical data as a reference in determining the optimal size of a new ESA, which is more suitable for the decision-making process from the practical perspective. This study used a total of 106 general ESAs to develop the proposed system. Compared to the conventional process (i.e., direction estimation), the prediction accuracy of the improved process (i.e., three-phase estimation process) was improved by 9.84%. The computational time required for the optimization of the proposed system was determined to be less than 10 min (from 1.75 min to 9.93 min). The proposed system could be useful for the final decision-maker as the following purposes: (i) the probability estimation model for determining the optimal size of a new ESA during the planning stage; (ii) the approximate initial construction cost estimation model for a new ESA by using the estimated sales in the ESA; and (iii) the comparative assessment model for evaluating the sales per the building area of the existing ESA.