Consensus model for multi-criteria large-group emergency decision making considering non-cooperative behaviors and minority opinions

摘要

Emergency situations often demand high-quality decision-making results because a wrong decision may cause incalculable losses. Therefore, in such cases, the views of all decision makers should be fully considered, especially minority opinions, and the interests of all parties should be well balanced. Additionally, an emergency decision often has to be made within a short period of time, which may require the rational treatment of non-cooperative behaviors. Classical consensus models mainly focus on group decision-making problems where a small number of decision makers participate. However, an emergency decision often involves many stakeholders, and thus requires the participation of larger number of decision makers. In this paper, an improved consensus model is proposed for large-group emergency decision making, and an approach to managing minority opinions and non-cooperative behaviors is described. By simulating the consensus reaching process, a method is presented to determine two important parameters: the minimum group consensus threshold and the maximum number of iterations. Finally, an illustrative example proves that the proposed consensus model is feasible and effective, and a detailed discussion highlights the advantages of this model for managing large-group emergency decision-making problems.