Using agent-based modelling to investigate diffusion of mobile-based branchless banking services in a developing country

摘要

Branchless Banking Services (BBS) were launched in 2009 in Pakistan with the promise of providing banking services to the unbanked. Since then the overall size of BBS has grown. Despite the popularity of the over-the-counter (OTC) channel, growth in m-wallets or mobile accounts (MA) has been slow. We investigate diffusion of MA through the development of an agent-based simulation model that captures the dynamics of the multi-sided BBS platform market. We identify important factors that drive MA diffusion and illustrate main and interaction effects between these factors. Furthermore, we examine how the relative effects of the different sides of the market have evolved over the course of the MA diffusion across both rural and urban consumer segments. The proposed model helps to understand the dynamics of diffusion of an important financial technology innovation. It can also serve as the starting point for future -research on technology diffusion in multi-sided markets.