Exploring the spoiler effect in the digital age: Evidence from the movie industry

摘要

For narrative products such as movies, books, and TV shows, electronic word of mouth (eWOM) can be a double-edged sword. It provides consumers with useful information while potentially revealing the storyline, that is, spoiling the surprise of what will happen. Prior studies have focused on the impact of spoilers on consumers' experiences through psychological experiments. However, the relationship between spoilers and narrative product sales has rarely been empirically explored. To fill this gap, the current study explores the impact of spoilers on the movie box office revenue and how this impact evolves over time. We collected 279,433 reviews of 465 films on a leading community website in China and constructed a dynamic generalized method of moments (GMM) model with instrumental variables to empirically examine the spoiler effect in the movie market. Our findings indicate that spoilers have a negative influence on the movie box office revenue. However, this impact is limited to the first 6 days after the movie is released. We also discover that spoilers have a stronger negative effect on narrative-based movies than non-narrative-based movies. Furthermore, eWOM volume and eWOM variance negatively moderate the spoiler effect on the box office revenue, but the moderating effect of eWOM valence is not significant. These findings can deepen movie industry decision makers' and platform providers' understanding of spoilers, helping them devise more feasible eWOM operation strategies.