A group decision tool for combining subjective estimates based on an optimisation approach

摘要

In this paper a powerful new approach is described for combining the subjective estimates of a number of managers into a single model by combining the model calibration with an optimization procedure. The combined model calibration and optimization procedure provides under reasonably mild restrictions, the ability to extract the underlying knowledge of a group of managers even though, superficially they may have widely varying views. The procedure has been used for developing Knowledge Support Systems to help a number of organisations to take better decisions. One of these cases is described in detail to illustrate the new concepts in the context of a practical sales force allocation problem.