Bankruptcy prediction using neural networks

摘要

Prediction of firm bankruptcies have been extensively studied in accounting, as all stakeholders in a firm have a vested interest in monitoring its financial performance. This paper presents an exploratory study which compares the predictive capabilities for firm bankruptcy of neural networks and classical multivariate discriminant analysis. The predictive accuracy of the two techniques is presented within a comprehensive, statistically sound framework, indicating the value added to the forecasting problem by each technique. The study indicates that neural networks perform significantly better than discriminant analysis at predicting firm bankruptcies. Implications of our results for the accounting professional, neural networks researcher and decision support system builders are highlighted.