Wind speed parameters sensitivity analysis based on fractals and neuro-fuzzy selection technique

摘要

Fluctuation of wind speed affects wind energy systems since the potential wind power is proportional the cube of wind speed. Hence precise prediction of wind speed is very important to improve the performances of the systems. Due to unstable behavior of the wind speed above different terrains, in this study fractal characteristics of the wind speed series were analyzed. According to the self-similarity characteristic and the scale invariance, the fractal extrapolate interpolation prediction can be performed by extending the fractal characteristic from internal interval to external interval. Afterward neuro-fuzzy technique was applied to the fractal data because of high nonlinearity of the data. The neuro-fuzzy approach was used to detect the most important variables which affect the wind speed according to the fractal dimensions. The main goal was to investigate the influence of terrain roughness length and different heights of the wind speed on the wind speed prediction.