Google trends identifying seasons of religious gathering: applied to investigate the correlation between crowding and flu outbreak

作者：

Highlights：

• Umrah is a Religious ritual that can happen any time in the year. Many people gather in the holy city of Makkah in Saudi Arabia which represents a health hazard.

• It is difficult to identify crowding seasons for Umrah.

• Google Trends has been used in research to track people interest. It is used in this research to find Umrah monthly seasonality.

• Mass gathering is considered as intensifying factor for flu outbreaks.

• In the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia, there are seasons with more Umrah performers according to Google Trends. Mainly in the months of Rajab (7th month) and Ramadan (9th month), and ThuAlqidah (11th month) in the Islamic Lunar calendar.

• The research found a correlation between these months and flu cases reported in the Province hospital. Peaks were noticed three months after seasons of gatherings.

摘要

•Umrah is a Religious ritual that can happen any time in the year. Many people gather in the holy city of Makkah in Saudi Arabia which represents a health hazard.•It is difficult to identify crowding seasons for Umrah.•Google Trends has been used in research to track people interest. It is used in this research to find Umrah monthly seasonality.•Mass gathering is considered as intensifying factor for flu outbreaks.•In the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia, there are seasons with more Umrah performers according to Google Trends. Mainly in the months of Rajab (7th month) and Ramadan (9th month), and ThuAlqidah (11th month) in the Islamic Lunar calendar.•The research found a correlation between these months and flu cases reported in the Province hospital. Peaks were noticed three months after seasons of gatherings.

论文关键词：Mass gathering,Hajj,Saudi Arabia,Influenza,Crowding,Flu,Google Trends,Seasonality,Flu outbreak,Umrah seasons

论文评审过程：Received 30 October 2019, Revised 9 January 2020, Accepted 14 January 2020, Available online 27 February 2020, Version of Record 27 February 2020.

论文官网地址：https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ipm.2020.102208