Limit theory for random coefficient first-order autoregressive process under martingale difference error sequence

摘要

Phillips and Magdalinos (2007) [1] gave the asymptotic theory for autoregressive time series with a root of the form ρn=1+c/kn, where kn is a deterministic sequence. In this paper, an extension to the more general case where the coefficients of an AR(1) model is a random variable and the error sequence is a sequence of martingale differences is discussed. A conditional least squares estimator of the autoregressive coefficient is derived and shown to be asymptotically normal. This extends the result of Phillips and Magdalinos (2007) [1] for stationary and near-stationary cases.