Probabilities and trial behavior

摘要

Probability concepts are used by key personnel in the trial court process, including lawyers and judicial decision-makers. Such concepts are present in the reasoning of lawyers in deciding whether to accept or reject a client, especially where their fee depends on whether they win the case. Probability concepts are also present in deciding whether to settle or go to trial, since going to trial can be risky, but more profitable if successful. Probability concepts are also present explicitly or implicitly in determining the probability of guilt or liability by a judge or a jury, and in deciding whether to convict or acquit. One key principle is that it is much easier to handle probability questions which ask whether a probability is above or below a threshold, breakeven, or critical value than it is to ask what is the probability of an occurence. Another key principle is that decision-making situations which involve making choices can be reduced to determining whether the benefits minus the costs or one choice exceeds the benefits minus the costs of another choice, with the benefits and costs discounted for the probability of their occuring. Any of those inputs can be treated as an unknown which can be solved in terms of the other values. Those solutions give the threshold values.