Probabilistic multi-knowledge-base systems

摘要

This article lays the groundwork for theprobabilistic multi-knowledge-base system (PMKBS), a new decision aid specifically tailored to the needs of a decision-maker faced with the derivation of a consensus diagnosis. In this article, we develop the PMKBS architecture in several ways. First, we define the basic problem that it addresses, and review the fundamental tools upon which it is based. Next, we describe its underlying theory, and explain how some general elicitation and modeling procedures form a viable design paradigm. Finally, we describe a small family of prototype PMKBSs that address problems related to pathologies of the lymph system, and evaluate their performance. Taken together, these discussions and prototypes demonstrate that the PMKBS architecture appears to be flexible, practical, and powerful.