Applying correlation to enhance boosting technique using genetic programming as base learner

摘要

This paper explores the Genetic Programming and Boosting technique to obtain an ensemble of regressors and proposes a new formula for the updating of weights, as well as for the final hypothesis. Differently from studies found in the literature, in this paper we investigate the use of the correlation metric as an additional factor for the error metric. This new approach, called Boosting using Correlation Coefficients (BCC) has been empirically obtained after trying to improve the results of the other methods. To validate this method, we conducted two groups of experiments. In the first group, we explore the BCC for time series forecasting, in academic series and in a widespread Monte Carlo simulation covering the entire ARMA spectrum. The Genetic Programming (GP) is used as a base learner and the mean squared error (MSE) has been used to compare the accuracy of the proposed method against the results obtained by GP, GP using traditional boosting and the traditional statistical methodology (ARMA). The second group of experiments aims at evaluating the proposed method on multivariate regression problems by choosing Cart (Classification and Regression Tree) as the base learner.