A novel decomposition-based ensemble model for short-term load forecasting using hybrid artificial neural networks

摘要

Highly accurate short-term load forecasting (STLF) is essential in the operation of power systems. However, the existing predictive methods cannot achieve an effective balance between prediction accuracy and computational cost. Furthermore, the prediction residual is rarely used to improve the predictive accuracy in STLF. This paper proposes a novel decomposition-based ensemble model for the STLF task. First, an optimized empirical wavelet transform (OEWT) is developed to rationally decompose the STLF load by combining the approximate entropy method with the empirical wavelet transform. Particularly, OEWT improves both prediction accuracy and computational cost in STLF. Second, a new hybrid machine learning method (named master learner) is proposed by rationally combining long short-term memory networks (LSTMs) with broad learning system (BLS) in STLF, effectively strengthening the predictive accuracy without significantly increasing the computational cost. Third, a residual learning model (named residual learner) is developed in the master learner to extract the effective predictive information from residual results, further improving the prediction accuracy in STLF. Fourth, an auxiliary learner is proposed by introducing another BLS to connect the input and output of the proposed model, enhancing the predictive robustness. The proposed decomposition-based ensemble model is compared with state-of-the-art and traditional models in STLF. Experimental results show that the model not only has high predictive accuracy and robustness but also low computational cost.