A case study comparing machine learning with statistical methods for time series forecasting: size matters

摘要

Time series forecasting is one of the most active research topics. Machine learning methods have been increasingly adopted to solve these predictive tasks. However, in a recent work, evidence was shown that these approaches systematically present a lower predictive performance relative to simple statistical methods. In this work, we counter these results. We show that these are only valid under an extremely low sample size. Using a learning curve method, our results suggest that machine learning methods improve their relative predictive performance as the sample size grows. The R code to reproduce all of our experiments is available at https://github.com/vcerqueira/MLforForecasting.