Comprehensible evaluation of prognostic factors and prediction of wound healing

摘要

We analyzed the data of a controlled clinical study of the chronic wound healing acceleration as a result of electrical stimulation. The study involved a conventional conservative treatment, sham treatment, biphasic pulsed current, and direct current electrical stimulation. Data was collected over 10 years and suffices for an analysis with machine learning methods. So far, only a limited number of studies have investigated the wound and patient attributes which affect the chronic wound healing. There is none to our knowledge to include treatment attributes. The aims of our study are to determine effects of the wound, patient and treatment attributes on the wound healing process and to propose a system for prediction of the wound healing rate. First we analyzed which wound and patient attributes play a predominant role in the wound healing process and investigated a possibility to predict the wound healing rate at the beginning of the treatment based on the initial wound, patient and treatment attributes. Later we tried to enhance the wound healing rate prediction accuracy by predicting it after a few weeks of the wound healing follow-up. Using the attribute estimation algorithms ReliefF and RReliefF we obtained a ranking of the prognostic factors which was comprehensible to experts. We used regression and classification trees to build models for prediction of the wound healing rate. The obtained results are encouraging and may form a basis for an expert system for the chronic wound healing rate prediction. If the wound healing rate is known, then the provided information can help to formulate the appropriate treatment decisions and orient resources towards individuals with poor prognosis.