Fuzzy-SIRD model: Forecasting COVID-19 death tolls considering governments intervention

作者：

Highlights：

• Proposing a new enhanced compartmental model, Fuzzy-SIRD.

• Considering the effects of government intervention on the trend of the disease.

• Studying the COVID-19 death tolls based on the compartmental models.

• Simulation of the model using the COVID-19 time series of seven countries.

• Comparing the conventional SIRD model with the proposed Fuzzy-SIRD model.

摘要

•Proposing a new enhanced compartmental model, Fuzzy-SIRD.•Considering the effects of government intervention on the trend of the disease.•Studying the COVID-19 death tolls based on the compartmental models.•Simulation of the model using the COVID-19 time series of seven countries.•Comparing the conventional SIRD model with the proposed Fuzzy-SIRD model.

论文关键词：Interval type 2 fuzzy logics,Fuzzy logic systems,Epidemiologic time series,Compartmental models,COVID-19 pandemic

论文评审过程：Received 19 April 2022, Revised 27 September 2022, Accepted 3 October 2022, Available online 13 October 2022, Version of Record 20 October 2022.

论文官网地址：https://doi.org/10.1016/j.artmed.2022.102422