Modelling behavioral syndromes using Bayesian networks

摘要

In this paper Bayesian networks modelling is applied to a multidimensional model of depression. The characterization of the probabilistic model exploits expert knowledge to associate latent concentrations of neurotransmitters and symptoms. An evolution perspective is also considered. Specific criteria are introduced to detect the influence of the latent variable on the observation of symptoms. The Bayesian analysis is carried out using Gibbs sampling technique which is implemented in the BUGS software. The estimation phase leads to the selection of symptoms entering into the definition of behavioral syndromes. Results on real data are discussed. The last section deals with simulation experiments. Simulation results confirm our methodological choices. Results of the paper can enlarge to the central problem of the management of latent variables in Bayesian networks modelling.