Constructing Bayesian networks for criminal profiling from limited data

摘要

The increased availability of information technologies has enabled law enforcement agencies to compile databases with detailed information about major felonies. Machine learning techniques can utilize these databases to produce decision-aid tools to support police investigations. This paper presents a methodology for obtaining a Bayesian network (BN) model of offender behavior from a database of cleared homicides. The BN can infer the characteristics of an unknown offender from the crime scene evidence, and help narrow the list of suspects in an unsolved homicide. Our research shows that 80% of offender characteristics are predicted correctly on average in new single-victim homicides, and when confidence levels are taken into account this accuracy increases to 95.6%.