The prediction for listed companies’ financial distress by using multiple prediction methods with rough set and Dempster–Shafer evidence theory
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摘要
It is critical to build an effective prediction model to improve the accuracy of financial distress prediction. Some existing literatures have demonstrated that single classifier has limitations and combination of multiple prediction methods has advantages in financial distress prediction. In this paper, we extend the research of multiple predictions to integrate with rough set and Dempster–Shafer evidence theory. We use rough set to determine the weight of each single prediction method and utilize Dempster–Shafer evidence theory method as the combination method. We discuss the research process for the financial distress prediction based on the proposed method. Finally, we provide an empirical experiment with Chinese listed companies’ real data to demonstrate the accuracy of the proposed method. We find that the performance of the proposed method is superior to those of single classifier and other multiple classifiers.
论文关键词:Financial distress prediction,Multiple prediction methods,Rough set,Dempster–Shafer evidence theory,Weight
论文评审过程:Received 17 March 2011, Revised 7 August 2011, Accepted 8 August 2011, Available online 12 August 2011.
论文官网地址:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.knosys.2011.08.001