Combining VIKOR-DANP model for glamor stock selection and stock performance improvement

摘要

This study proposes a multiple attributes decision making (MADM) method for solving glamor stock selection problem based on fundamental analysis. Traditional analyzes rely on choosing key financial ratios in making comparison, or by observing the trends of change in various financial variables (also termed as criteria or signals in this study). However, most of the criteria for stock selection have inter-dependent/interactive characteristics. In practice, investors often have to make compromising decisions when target stocks indicate conflicting performance outcomes in different criteria. Traditional methods have difficulty in making decision while facing inter-dependent criteria and compromise alternatives. Thus, this study proposes a combined MADM method to retrieve financial experts’ knowledge for glamor stock selection. The proposed method not only helps to identify the ideal glamor stock, but the pertaining insights may also be used for the management teams of glamor stocks to prioritize their improvement plans. In addition, this study provides an empirical case in analyzing five glamor stocks of semiconductor industry in Taiwan. The result indicates that the proposed method for glamor stock selection is effective and provides meaningful implications for investors and management teams to refer. The selected top ranking stock consistently outperformed the other four glamor stocks in 32 month and 44 month holding periods from May 2009 to December 2012 with statistical significance, which indicated the effectiveness of the proposed model.