Classifiers consensus system approach for credit scoring

摘要

Banks take great care when dealing with customer loans to avoid any improper decisions that can lead to loss of opportunity or financial losses. Regarding this, researchers have developed complex credit scoring models using statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques to help banks and financial institutions to support their financial decisions. Various models, from easy to advanced approaches, have been developed in this domain. However, during the last few years there has been marked attention towards development of ensemble or multiple classifier systems, which have proved their ability to be more accurate than single classifier models. However, among the multiple classifier systems models developed in the literature, there has been little consideration given to: 1) combining classifiers of different algorithms (as most have focused on building classifiers of the same algorithm); or 2) exploring different classifier output combination techniques other than the traditional ones, such as majority voting and weighted average. In this paper, the aim is to present a new combination approach based on classifier consensus to combine multiple classifier systems (MCS) of different classification algorithms. Specifically, five of the main well-known base classifiers in this domain are used, namely, neural networks (NN), support vector machines (SVM), random forests (RF), decision trees (DT) and naïve Bayes (NB). Two benchmark classifiers are considered as a reference point for comparison with the proposed method and the other classifiers. These are used in combination with LR, which is still considered the industry-standard model for credit scoring models, and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), a widely adopted technique in credit scoring studies. The experimental results, analysis and statistical tests demonstrate the ability of the proposed combination method to improve prediction performance against all base classifiers, LR, MARS and seven traditional combination methods, in terms of average accuracy, area under the curve (AUC), the H-measure and Brier score. The model was validated over five real-world credit scoring datasets.