A fuzzy inference system modeling approach for interval-valued symbolic data forecasting

摘要

This paper suggests a fuzzy inference system (iFIS) modeling approach for interval-valued time series forecasting. Interval-valued data arise quite naturally in many situations in which such data represent uncertainty/variability or when comprehensive ways to summarize large data sets are required. The method comprises a fuzzy rule-based framework with affine consequents which provides a (non)linear framework that processes interval-valued symbolic data. The iFIS antecedents identification uses a fuzzy c-means clustering algorithm for interval-valued data with adaptive distances, whereas parameters of the linear consequents are estimated with a center-range methodology to fit a linear regression model to symbolic interval data. iFIS forecasting power, measured by accuracy metrics and statistical tests, was evaluated through Monte Carlo experiments using both synthetic interval-valued time series with linear and chaotic dynamics, and real financial interval-valued time series. The results indicate a superior performance of iFIS compared to traditional alternative single-valued and interval-valued forecasting models by reducing 19% on average the predicting errors, indicating that the suggested approach can be considered as a promising tool for interval time series forecasting.