Bankruptcy prediction using support vector machine with optimal choice of kernel function parameters

摘要

Bankruptcy prediction has drawn a lot of research interests in previous literature, and recent studies have shown that machine learning techniques achieved better performance than traditional statistical ones. This paper applies support vector machines (SVMs) to the bankruptcy prediction problem in an attempt to suggest a new model with better explanatory power and stability. To serve this purpose, we use a grid-search technique using 5-fold cross-validation to find out the optimal parameter values of kernel function of SVM. In addition, to evaluate the prediction accuracy of SVM, we compare its performance with those of multiple discriminant analysis (MDA), logistic regression analysis (Logit), and three-layer fully connected back-propagation neural networks (BPNs). The experiment results show that SVM outperforms the other methods.