The evaluation of consumer loans using support vector machines

摘要

The commencement of the Basel II requirement, popularization of consumer loans and the intense competition in financial market has increased the awareness of the critical delinquency issue for financial institutions in granting loans to potential applicants. In the past few decades, the scheme of artificial neural networks has been successfully applied to the financial field. Recently, the Support Vector Machine (SVM) has emerged as the better neural network in dealing with classification and forecasting problems due to its superior features of generalization performance and global optimum. This study develops a loan evaluation model using SVM to identify potential applicants for consumer loans. In addition to conducting experiments on performance comparison via cross-validation and paired t test, we analyze misclassification errors in terms of Type I and Type II and their effect on selecting network parameters of SVM. The analysis findings facilitate the development of a useful visual decision-support tool. The experimental results using a real-world data set reveal that SVM surpasses traditional neural network models in generalization performance and visualization via the visual tool, which helps decision makers determine appropriate loan evaluation strategies.