A hybrid SARIMA and support vector machines in forecasting the production values of the machinery industry in Taiwan

摘要

This paper proposes a hybrid methodology that exploits the unique strength of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and the support vector machines (SVM) model in forecasting seasonal time series. The seasonal time series data of Taiwan’s machinery industry production values were used to examine the forecasting accuracy of the proposed hybrid model. The forecasting performance was compared among three models, i.e., the hybrid model, SARIMA models and the SVM models, respectively. Among these methods, the normalized mean square error (NMSE) and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the hybrid model were the lowest. The hybrid model was also able to forecast certain significant turning points of the test time series.