A causal analytical method for group decision-making under fuzzy environment

摘要

Causal analysis largely influences the effectiveness of decision-making and the productivity of actions. The complex relationship between cause and effect as well as the fuzzy nature of human life make the casual analysis difficult. In this paper, we develop a fuzzy DEMATEL method for group decision-making to gather group ideas and analyze the cause–effect relationship of complex problems in fuzzy environments. Procedures of the fuzzy DEMATEL method are then proposed. Using the fuzzy DEMATEL procedures, the involved criteria of a system (or subsystem) are separated into the cause and effect groups for helping decision-makers focus on those criteria that provide great influence. An empirical study applies the proposed fuzzy DEMATEL method to the R&D project selection of a Taiwanese company. The result shows that, within the cause group, the criterion of “probability of technical success” is the most important factor for R&D project selection, whereas the “strategic fit” and “potential size of market” have the best effect on the other criteria. By contrast, the “net present value” is the most easily improved of the effect group criteria.