Prediction of vehicle reliability performance using artificial neural networks

摘要

Product development is an important but also dynamic, lengthy and risky phase in the life of a new product. The optimisation of the product development phase through extensive knowledge of the involved procedures is believed to reduce the risks and improve the final product quality. Artificial intelligence and expert systems have been used successfully in optimising the development phase of some new products as it will be demonstrated by the first sections of this publication. This paper presents the first module of an expert system, a neural network architecture that could predict the reliability performance of a vehicle at later stages of its life by using only information from a first inspection after the vehicle’s prototype production. The paper demonstrates how a tool like neural networks can be designed and optimised for use in reliability performance predictions. Also, this paper presents an optimisation methodology that enabled the neural network to deal with the limited amount of available training data, common during new product development, and to finally achieve acceptable prediction performance with small error. A case example is presented to demonstrate the methodology.