Web-based CBR system applied to early cost budgeting for pavement maintenance project

摘要

With the growth of transportation networks in developing countries, the cost-efficacy control of maintenance operations has become critical to the infrastructure asset management after highway construction. To effectively manage numerous projects annually with limited resources, it is necessary to accurately estimate costs and leave a trail of project information during the process of making maintenance project selection decisions. This paper outlines the development of a case-based reasoning (CBR) expert prototype system that compares historical data at the work item-level across the case library. This study attempts to determine preliminary project cost with readily available information rapidly based on previous experience of pavement maintenance related construction to assist decision makers in project screening and budget allocation. Various CBR modeling approaches were presented and assessed in terms of their mean absolute prediction error rates. Design and implementation of a web-based CBR system is demonstrated in this study to efficiently handle the attribute and case similarity computation and the results are displayed using browsers. Furthermore, weighting attributes employed in the CBR system were compared via eigenvector and equal weighting methods for estimating aggregate cost and component costs. Historical generic pavement maintenance projects were gathered from the Taiwan transportation agencies and used for model training and testing. Furthermore, k-fold cross-validation was employed to verify the CBR estimating system. The analytical results demonstrate the ability of the system to estimate the item-level cost of pavement maintenance projects with the satisfactory precision during the conceptual project phase. The developed prototype web-based CBR system can efficiently provide timely and accurate information in an efficient way and provide an alternative estimation tool that can be combined with other evaluation criteria, such as indexes of pavement serviceability and structure strength, to improve the decision making in relation to budget allocation.