Generalized linear model-based expert system for estimating the cost of transportation projects

摘要

Timely effective cost management requires reliable cost estimates at every stage of project development. While underestimation of transportation costs seems to be a global trend, improving early cost prediction accuracy in estimates is difficult. This paper presents a parametric estimating technique applied to Texas highway projects using a set of project characteristics. Generalized linear models (GLM) of early quantity prediction for geometry-related work activities, namely earthwork, pavement and traffic control were developed for continuous project cost tracking. The approach of cost breakdown demonstrates the potential to separate quantity uncertainty from price uncertainty for highway construction. The benefit of this approach is to provide a platform for evolving the preliminary parametric cost estimates to a fully detailed cost management as further information becomes available as the project progresses. During project execution, managers are given opportunities to review the associated work activities and make better decisions from the developed GLM-based estimating system. Compared to typical practice of applying a gross cost per lane length during pre-project planning phase, the proposed approach with the aid of the developed expert system provides more detailed basis and efficiency for tracking the effects of changes within the project life cycle.