Modelling grey uncertainty with Fuzzy Grey Cognitive Maps

摘要

An innovative and flexible model based on Grey Systems Theory and Fuzzy Cognitive Maps called Fuzzy Grey Cognitive Maps (FGCM) is proposed. It can be adapted to a wide range of problems, specially in multiple meaning-based environments. FGCMs offer some advantages in comparison with others similar tools. First, the FGCM model is defined specifically for multiple meanings (grey) environments. Second, the FGCM technique allows the defining of relationships between concepts. Through this characteristic, decisional models that are more reliable for interrelated environments are defined. Third, the FGCM technique is able to quantify the grey influence of the relationships between concepts. Through this attribute, a better support in grey environments can be reached. Finally, with this FGCM model it is possible to develop a what-if analysis with the purpose of describing possible grey scenarios. IT projects risks are modelled to illustrate the proposed technique.