Bankruptcy forecasting: A hybrid approach using Fuzzy c-means clustering and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS)

摘要

During the last years, hybrid models have proven to be a promising approach for the design of classification systems for the forecasting of bankruptcy. In the present research we propose a hybrid system which combines fuzzy clustering and MARS. Both models are especially suitable for the bankruptcy prediction problem, due to their theoretical advantages when the information used for the forecasting is drawn from company financial statements. We test the accuracy of our approach in a real setting consisting of a database made up of 59,336 non-bankrupt Spanish companies and 138 distressed firms which went bankrupt during 2007. As benchmarking techniques we used discriminant analysis, MARS and a feed-forward neural network. Our results show that the hybrid model outperforms the other systems, both in terms of the percentage of correct classifications and in terms of the profit generated by the lending decisions.