Identifying core technologies based on technological cross-impacts: An association rule mining (ARM) and analytic network process (ANP) approach

摘要

This study proposes a new approach to identifying core technologies from a perspective of technological cross-impacts based on patent co-classification information with consideration of the overall interrelationships among technologies. The proposed approach is comprised of two methods: association rule mining (ARM) and the analytic network process (ANP). Firstly association rule mining (ARM) is employed to calculate the technological cross-impact indexes. Since the confidence measure in ARM is defined as a conditional probability between two technologies, it is adopted as an index for evaluating technological cross-impacts. The technological cross-impact matrix is then constructed with all calculated cross-impact indexes. Secondly, the ANP, which is a generalization of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), is conducted to produce priorities of technologies with consideration of their direct and indirect impacts. The proposed approach can be utilized for technology monitoring for both technology planning of firms and innovation policy making of governments. A case of telecommunication technology is presented to illustrate the proposed approach.