Cash flow generalisations of non-life insurance expert systems estimating outstanding liabilities

作者：

Highlights：

• Two new reserving methods using expert opinion incurred data are presented.

• New methodology allows reserving methods to be compared via validation.

• The two most popular actuarial reserving methods can also be compared via this new method.

• Our new expert system approach to reserving is shown to be superior for our real life example.

摘要

•Two new reserving methods using expert opinion incurred data are presented.•New methodology allows reserving methods to be compared via validation.•The two most popular actuarial reserving methods can also be compared via this new method.•Our new expert system approach to reserving is shown to be superior for our real life example.

论文关键词：Stochastic reserving,General insurance,Chain ladder,Claims inflation,Incurred data,Model validation

论文评审过程：Received 20 June 2014, Revised 17 September 2015, Accepted 17 September 2015, Available online 26 September 2015, Version of Record 10 November 2015.

论文官网地址：https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2015.09.021