A Bayesian network framework for project cost, benefit and risk analysis with an agricultural development case study
作者：
Highlights：
• We focus on project cost, benefit and risk analysis.
• We propose a modelling framework that uses a hybrid and dynamic Bayesian network(BN).
• BN offers unique features of analysıng risk scenarios and budget policies.
• It uses uncertainty and variability of risk and economic factors in its predictions.
• The framework is illustrated by a case study of agricultural development projects.
摘要
•We focus on project cost, benefit and risk analysis.•We propose a modelling framework that uses a hybrid and dynamic Bayesian network(BN).•BN offers unique features of analysıng risk scenarios and budget policies.•It uses uncertainty and variability of risk and economic factors in its predictions.•The framework is illustrated by a case study of agricultural development projects.
论文关键词：Project management,Risk analysis,Cost-benefit analysis,Bayesian networks
论文评审过程：Received 4 February 2016, Revised 19 April 2016, Accepted 2 May 2016, Available online 4 May 2016, Version of Record 14 May 2016.
论文官网地址：https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2016.05.005
